I have been very busy since my last post at the new year. M scouting report, while it may be helpful when making 2009 season predictions, is obsolete since much has happened since I published it. However, my opinions haven't changed much. The Yankees had the best grapefruit league record and I am very impressed with the roster they have put together. Once again, it's safe to say that they have the most roster depth in the majors.

Now, I'm going to have some fun and predict the winners of each division for the 2009 MLB season. In future posts, I will post my reasoning for my picks.

AL East- NY Yankees
AL Central- Cleveland Indians
AL West- LA Angels
AL Wild Card- Tampa Bay Rays

NL East- NY Mets
NL Central- Chicago Cubs
NL West- LA Dodgers
NL Wild Card- Cincinnati Reds

I want to first start off by saying that it is not fair for the league to be angry at the Yankees. They have every right to spend their money the way they did, especially since their 2009 payroll is still less than 2008 at this point. The Yankees are a winning organization because their owners care enough about the team to take revenues generated and give it back to the fans in the form of valuable free agent signings. It's also a great business model for building a growing fan base. Those of you who are pissed about what the Yankees did are just jealous that your own teams don't show that kind of appreciation for their fans.

Some people have stated that what the Yankees have done is unfair. If the past seven years have taught you anything, it's that you can't buy a championship. Heck, you can't even buy a postseason berth. Look at the Detroit Tigers and Seattle Mariners of last season. Sure they didn't spend as much as the Yankees, but they were both edged out by teams with much smaller payrolls. People seem to forget that prospects are just as good as money. That's how Tampa Bay made it to the World Series. They had a great team chemistry and great talent that couldn't be bought with money. This Yankee team doesn't guarantee anything. However, I will be surprised if they don't at least make the postseason. I feel that there is something missing in the Yankees offseason plans.

This leads into my bold Yankee offseason prediction. Since the Yankees are still under their 2008 payroll, I predict the Yanks will make one last acquisition before 2009 starts. One thing the Yanks have not addressed too much in this offseason is improved defense. Swisher and Teixeira are great defenders. But besides the infield, the outfield looks like one big mess right now. Here are our potential outfielders: Johnny Damon, Nick Swisher, Brett Gardner, Melky Cabrera, and Xavier Nady. Given that there are only 3 spots, having 5 guys seems crazy. A trade seems likely to go down.

I think there will be one more starting pitching acquisition. My earlier prediction of Oliver Perez may come true, since Pettitte is insistent upon getting $16 million. The Yanks want to replace a southpaw with another southpaw. Ollie Perez is also only 28 and has great potential. It's just a thought in the event that Pettitte negotiations don't work out.

I am writing this entry to comment on the complete insanity that is known as the Offseason 2008. The Yankees just got Mark Teixeira for 8 years $180 Million. All I can say is that I am completely speechless. Yankee detractors will say the Yanks only win because they spend money. But these signings at least seem like value signings, locking up great, relatively young players for long term contracts. Hopefully, this will help the Empire achieve greatness once again.

Here are Teixeira's last season numbers with the Angels in 54 games:
.358 avg, .449 OBP, 1.081 OPS. On top of that, he is consistently one of the best defensive 1st basemen in the game. Overall, I don't see how you can find fault in this signing. Unless, of course, he fails to perform on the big stage known as Yankee Stadium. I can see how this signing can infuriate non-Yankee fans. Sabathia, Burnett, Swisher, and Teixeira are such valuable additions to the team. Brian Cashman has certainly addressed team needs without giving up many prospects, but spending a buttload of money. Hopefully, this will benefit the team for years to come.

Now that it seems that the Yankees will stop binging on players, here's what the lineup may look like in 2009:

CF Johnny Damon/Brett Gardner/Melky
SS Derek Jeter
1B Mark Teixeira
3B Alex Rodriguez
DH Hideki Matsui
C Jorge Posada
RF Xavier Nady
2B Robinson Cano
LF Nick Swisher/Brett Gardner/Melky

Here's how our starting 5 will probably look (I'm assuming Pettitte comes back):

1) Sabathia
2) Burnett
3) Wang
4) Joba
5) Pettitte

And our bullpen will still have its guys:
LR Dave Robertson
MR Alfredo Aceves
MR Phil Coke
MR Jose Veras
MR Bruney
SU Marte
CL Rivera

If this team doesn't make the playoffs, it will go down as the biggest flop in history. However, the Red Sox and Rays will have a lot to compete with in 2009.

Ken Davidoff of Newsday reports that a Mike Cameron for Melky Cabrera trade seems likely to happen. If this does happen, there are both positive and negative implications.

Here are the positives:
1) The Yanks will be getting a solid defensive center fielder with home run power
2) He's a good friend of CC Sabathia
3) He knows what it's like to play in New York as he was on the Mets in 2004-2005
4) We would only be giving up Melky, who has fallen out of favor with New York

Negatives:
1) He's 35 and turning 36 next month.
2) He isn't known for his offense. His best year he batted .273 with the Mets.
3) The chances of Abreu coming back after this seem slim

Overall, I think this would be a good deal. Although I really like Abreu, the team just can't afford his contract. Hopefully, he will sign in the NL West that way the Yanks never have to face him. I wouldn't be able to root against him. If money weren't an issue here, the Yanks would take Abreu over Cameron without a doubt. Trading Melky now is a good idea. He doesn't seem like he will amount to being a player who possesses all the necessary tools. While his arm is excellent, I'm not sure he will be able to stay in center field for the Yankees. He might have more success in the National League. I'm glad that Brett Gardner is here to stay, otherwise the name of this blog would seem inappropriate. Gardner will benefit from learning from both Damon and Cameron. They both represent the two extremes of the outfield position: Offensive and Defensive. While Damon was helping Gardner improve his swing last season, Mike Cameron can help him out with the defensive aspects of the outfield.

This could be the 2009 lineup according to Yankees Beat Writer Peter Abraham:

Damon LF
Jeter SS
Nady RF
Rodriguez 3B
Matsui DH
Posada C
Cameron CF
Cano 2B
Swisher 1B

I don't think Nady is good enough to be a number 3 hitter. He is a downgrade from Abreu in right field since he has less speed and his arm is not as good. It will largely depend on who performs in spring training.

As I was lying in bed this morning, I turned on ESPN and saw that the Yankees have just about signed CC Sabathia. This will be the largest pitcher contract in Major League history at 7 years $160 million. I thought Sabathia would defy the stereotype of going to the highest bidder. However, when you look at his options, you will see that he had little choice. The next closest offer was for $100 million from the Brewers. That's a difference of $60 million! The Dodgers, Angels, and Giants did not make an offer due to the slumping economy. It took Reggie Jackson, Joe Girardi, and Brian Cashman meeting with CC face to face to finally convince him to make New York his new home.

Now that CC will be in pinstripes, let's take a look at some of his career numbers. He has a career ERA of 3.66, K/9 of 7.56, K/BB 2.66, BAA .247, and a G/F of 1.21. That's pretty impressive. I hope CC will be able to handle the pressure of this deal. He will probably come under the same critical review as A-Rod since they both have huge contracts. Overall, I am happy that we got CC. If he didn't sign with us, it wouldn't be as big of a deal as some people are making it. But I am happy to welcome him to pinstripes. As a note though, his numbers last season were unreal. This is due to his moving over to the National League mid-season. Expect his numbers to go up quite a bit at first since he will be re-adjusting to the American League.

So at this point, here's our starting 5: Wang, Sabathia, ?/Joba, ?, ?. I put a question mark next to Joba since there were some plans at the end of last season to allow Joba to start '09 in the bullpen due to his injury. A deal with Andy Pettitte is still in the works, so he may just be on this list. The Yankees are also currently working out a deal with Sabathia's former teammate Ben Sheets. Sheets, like Sabathia, is a great pitcher. However, his injury-proneness makes it a little harder to commit too many years and dollars to him. He's just as much of an injury risk as Burnett. Unlike Burnett, he has yet to pitch in the AL East. The good news about the Sabathia signing is that Derek Lowe and A.J. Burnett are now looking more unrealistic. They are not good for the organization. My favorite free agent pitcher in terms of cost/benefit, Oliver Perez, is looking like a better option now. If the Yankees get Andy Pettitte and another free agent pitcher, then it seems like there will be no room for Hughes and Kennedy. The organization has nor I have given up on them. In the event of two more free agent signings, they will be on call if somebody goes down with an injury. If the Yankees end up getting only one free agent, then there might be a spot for them in the starting 5.

A lot has happened at the Winter Meetings thus far. The Reds completed a trade on Tuesday that brought Ramon Hernandez to Cincinnati from the Orioles in exchange for utility player Ryan Freel and Minor League infielders Justin Turner and Brandon Waring. I think this was a great move for the Reds since now they will have a good catcher who can provide offense, defense, and leadership. Freel is good, but injury prone and has gotten a couple DUIs. I think the Reds got the better end of the deal since outfielders are easily replaceable. The Reds have shown interest in signign Hairston Jr. Good catchers are hard to come by and that's why I think the Reds will make a run for the playoffs this season. This leads us to wonder what the Orioles will do about a catcher. It is said they have a great prospect in their organization named Matt Wieters. He is supposed to be "Joe Mauer but with more power." I'm sure he will get an invite to spring training. The Orioles have problems with starting pitching and bullpen they should be addressing now to compete in the AL East this season.

Kerry Wood is close to a deal with the Indians. Wood's getting older, but he can certainly close. I like the Indians and their gritty style of play. I guess I just like Ohio teams. A guy like Kerry Wood is a necessity for this team. They had the 2nd worst bullpen in ERA last season and will certainly benefit from having a good closer, unlike Borowski. At least now they can move Borowski to set up and they will still have Perez in the bullpen.

In other closer news, the Mets just signed K-Rod to a 3 year $37 million deal. He will fit in well with the Mets im sure. Now the Yanks will have to face him in Interleague play.

It's been a while since my last post. The reason for this is not too much has happened since. There have been some rumors, but nothing major has happened.

Yesterday, it was confirmed that Javier Vazquez was traded along with Boone Logan for 4 Atlanta Braves prospects. Vazquez has good stuff, but has always been inconsistent. Maybe his luck will change now that he is in the National League. The former Yankee will have the pleasure of facing the Yankees during interleague play this year. The real reason why this trade affects the Yanks is that now the Braves are 1 pitcher away from accomplishing their offseason goal. A month ago, I was convinced that the Braves would be the most likely suitors for Jake Peavy. After this trade, however, it seems as if Peavy coming to ATL is unlikely. Tyler Flowers has been tearing it up at the Arizona Fall League and seems like the centerpiece of this trade. While the 4 guys traded were not involved in a package for Peavy, I'm not sure Wren wants to deplete his farm system too much.

Also, Tim Dierkes of mlbtraderumors.com reports that the Braves are the first team to offer A.J. Burnett a five-year deal. I think that Burnett will ultimately take this deal. The dilemma all the Burnett suitors were dealing with was offering the injury prone starter too long of a contract. Teams are much more afraid of this given the economy and looking at Carl Pavano and Mike Hampton as examples. Speaking of Mike Hampton, he was just signed to a 1 year, $2 million deal with the Astros. I don't expect any other team to offer Burnett a 5-year deal. Plus, I'm sure A.J. wants to return to the NL East where he had so much success as a member of the Marlins.

The Yankees announced this week that they did not offer Abreu or Pettitte arbitration. Since they are both Type A free agents, the Yankees would receive a top draft pick if they signed elsewhere from each of their signing teams. A good rundown of how arbitration works is explained here: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2008/07/free-agent-comp.html. This information leads to one conclusion: the Yankees are not going to be the wild offseason spenders they have been in the past. Given that they just spent over $1 billion on the new stadium and the state of the economy, it only makes sense that the Yankees would be in this position. While some of you readers may think of this as a very foolish, I think it's a pretty smart move. Abreu and Pettitte have both expressed their interest in remaining with the Yankees in 2009. They are both good people who do a lot for their respective communities and seem like a smaller contract wouldn't anger them too much. They have both made a lot of money in their careers and a difference of a couple million to play elsewhere may not sway them. Cashman is prepared in the event that either of them decides to sign elsewhere. If Cashman had offered them arbitration, the Yanks would have to pay a lot more for both of them. Talks of Pettitte signing with the Dodgers seem like rumors. The Yankees have expressed that they want to keep both players, so hopefully it works out.

Sabathia's delayed response indicates that he doesn't have an interest in playing in New York. He is waiting to hear from the Angels and Dodgers. I still see the Dodgers as the most likely suitors since they have been making room on their payroll for a CC contract. I think the free agent Yankee pitchers will be a big surprise to the baseball world this offseason. I still see Oliver Perez in pinstripes. Other than Sabathia, Cashman realizes that the free agent starter options are somewhat limited. That's why Perez would be an ideal pickup. He certainly wouldn't be replacing Wang as the number 1 starter, but he could become a number 3 starter. Derek Lowe is not a good option for the Yanks. Don't be surprised to see a low risk option like Brad Penny join the team. Besides the CC offer, it seems as if the Yanks are going for more under the radar players. Ben Sheets is also a possibility, but he is just as likely to sign as Brad Penny. All the players I have mentioned are young and talented. While none of them are as well-rounded as CC, collectively, they could turn this team's fate around.

So far, I am very happy with the way Cashman has been approaching this offseason. This goes against many of the past Yankee offseasons which were characterized by the signing of big name sluggers with little defense. The New York Yankees announced today that they have acquired switch-hitting first baseman/outfielder Nick "Dirty 30" Swisher and right-handed pitcher Kanekoa Texeira from the Chicago White Sox in exchange for infielder Wilson Betemit and right-handed pitchers Jeff Marquez and Jhonny Nunez. Some of these guys show promise, but they are have yet to prove anything, so it is still hard to gauge how good this deal really is. Swisher will provide something that the Yanks have been missing since the days of Tino Martinez at 1st base: defense. Now that I think about it, Swisher reminds me a lot of Tino as a player. Of course Tino hit for higher average in his career, but Swisher is still young. He turns 28 in 12 days. Swisher hits for power, draws lots of walks, and plays great defense. He can also play outfield, if need be. Overall, I would say he is an upgrade from Giambi.

In older news, the Yanks signed Marte to a 3 year deal worth 12 million. That seems reasonable given his nasty stuff and the idea of having a guy who can get the ball to Mariano who is not Joba. Having a lefty like him is especially valuable in the AL East. Need I say more?

Tomorrow is the day the Yanks are expected to make an offer for Sabathia. Joel Sherman of the New York Post believes the Yanks will make an initial bid of 6 years in the $150 million range. While that kind of money would entice most people, I'm still convinced we will see Carsten Charles in Dodger Blue come March/April. When you make as much money as Sabathia does, you have to wonder if he will pitch where the money is or where his heart lies. I think the Dodgers will make a nice offer that will fall short of the Yanks' offer, but will be enough for CC. I've stated in a previous post why Sabathia likes the Dodgers.

In other non-Yankee related news, Kerry Wood will not be returning to the Cubs since Kevin Gregg was just acquired. The Mets will certainly have an interest in Wood's services. The Matt Holliday trade is huge news. It is uncharacteristic Billy Beane since he traded a bunch of moneyball type players for one superstar. I think the A's will make a run in the weak AL West this season.Billy Beane could potentially be on the buy side this offseason to round out his team. While he lost Carlos Gonzalez and Huston Street, he now has an upgraded outfield with Holliday, Ryan Sweeney, and Matt Murton. If the A's become buyers, there is a lot of speculation that Beane will pursue Furcal, who is one of the premier Shortstops in the game. The A's would certainly be contenders if they were able to jumpstart their offense to supplement their already excellent pitching.

I know it has been a long time since I have posted. I wanted to wait for the World Series to end and for the GM meetings in Dana Point to conclude. As I predicted, the Phillies would beat the Rays. But congrats to the Rays. Even though I have been critical of them in the past, they have overcome so much adversity and managed to come away as the victors of the toughest division in Baseball. I do think that if the Red Sox had faced the White Sox in the first round and made it to the World Series then they would have been champions.

Since I don't want to write a 20 page paper, I will focus mostly on the Yankee's future and I will detail my picks for Free Agent Frenzy. Since the Yanks are usually the biggest offseason player, I will probably end up detailing many of the free agents around the league. To keep up with what has been going on, I have been reading mlbtraderumors.com. It's a great site if you want to find out about all the latest deals and rumors instantaneously. There's been a lot of talk this Winter Meetings and this may just be another record-breaking season. Every year, it seems like more and more trades are occurring. I think it has something to do with the dynamic aspect of the sport that makes it much more interesting than other sports.

I really think the Yanks will sign Oliver Perez. He's a Scott Boras client and he seems to be a great fit for the team. He's turning 28 years old and he has nasty stuff. In previous posts, I discussed his ability to render lefties useless at the plate. The Mets are a possibility, but I think Minaya will focus more on his bullpen than his starting rotation this offseason. This brings up another free agent in K-Rod. I am 90% sure that K-Rod will be a Met next year. He would perfectly fill the late inning void within the organization and you know how Minaya loves those hispanic players. K-Rod may get a record breaking deal, since he did break Bobby Thigpen's record for most saves in a season. Sabathia is also at the forefront of the free agent pitching dilemma the Yankees are facing. I do believe that the Dodgers will ultimately offer him enough to get him to go to LA. Derek Lowe seems unlikely for the Yanks. I doubt that he can still pitch in the AL East and he is 34. He's extremely inconsistent and would be a bad fit for the Yanks. I expect the Tigers to come out of nowhere and sign him. They are in need of starting pitching and bullpen help. Expect them to be players in the free agent reliever market.

I am convinced that Jake Peavy will be a Brave next season. He is from Alabama and has certainly expressed interest in being able to live close to home. Also, now that Tim Hudson will miss a majority of the '09 season, Atlanta GM Frank Wren will be looking for all the starting pitching he can get. It seems like he has the most enticing prospects out of all the GMs who are competing for Peavy's services. I highly doubt that the Yanks would want to give up what Padres GM Kevin Towers wants.

As Yankee beat writer Peter Abraham has stated repeatedly, the Yanks will most likely give up either Hughes or Kennedy in a trade this offseason. Cashman has a lot of faith in Hughes and it would take a lot to give him up. so that means Kennedy will most likely be gone before the start of next season. Kennedy may turn into something good, but his future is not as bright as Hughes'. I am confident that the Yankees will re-sign Abreu. He is a first class right fielder who has been nothing but clutch for a team that seemed to struggle with RISP this past season.

Cashman has been insisting that he will look for a legit first baseman as opposed to a convert who wants to take one for the team. Teixeira is likely to be re-signed by the Angels. They have the resources and the desire to keep him. Giambi's chances of being re-signed aren't very high. The amount of money he is demanding will prove too much for his services. Giambi will either be in Oakland or Seattle next season. Seattle seems more likely since they can afford him. I think Cashman will be looking to shop Matsui and Kennedy for a solid first baseman. Please feel free to give your input on who this candidate may be since I don't have any ideas at the moment.

Cashman's focus this offseason will be starting pitching and first base. The bullpen really came together this past season, so there likely won't be any big FA moves there. Any Matt Holliday-Yankee rumors are likely just rumors since the Yanks have so many outfielders as it is. Manny is also unlikely since it would undermine Cashman's efforts to create a younger, well-rounded team. Manny will most likely be re-signed by LA.

To conclude my post, I will give you all an idea of where I think some of the notable free agents will end up in 2009. I am playing the mlb.com fantasy game called Free Agent Frenzy. If I get the most correct, I can win opening day tickets; so let's hope I am right. 15 is the highest confidence. 1 is the lowest.

Player Name | 2008 Team | 2009 Team | Confidence level
Bobby Abreu | NYY | NYY | 14
Milton Bradley | Tex | Tor | 6
A.J. Burnett |Tor | Bal | 5
Pat Burrell |Phi | Tb | 3
Ryan Dempster |CHC | Tex | 1
Adam Dunn |ARI | WSH | 2
Rafael Furcal |LAD | LAD | 13
Derek Lowe |LAD | DET | 4
Oliver Perez |NYM | NYY | 7
Manny Ramirez |LAD | LAD | 10
Francisco Rodriguez |LAA | NYM | 11
CC Sabathia |MIL | LAD | 12
Ben Sheets | MIL | ATL | 9
Mark Teixeira | LAA | LAA | 15
Kerry Wood | CHC | CHC | 8

So I got one half of the world series equation correct. Now that it's Phils/Rays, I'm going to revise my World Series winner prediction.

World Series Champion: Phillies (in 6 games).

This is the best NL champion I have seen in a while. I think the AL gets it handed to them this year.

Here's my comparison of the two teams:
Rays
Defense: A+
Offense: B
Starting Pitching: B+/A-
Bullpen: A-

Phillies
Defense: A
Offense: A-
Starting Pitching: A-
Bullpen: A

Phils win this. Better pen, better offense. Starting pitching is better imo. The only decisive advantage the Rays have besides homefield is defense.

These are the 4 man rotations:
Rays: Garza, Shields, Kazmir, Sonnanstine
Phils: Hamels, Myers, Blanton, Moyer

To aid the Rays case, the Phils were not too impressive in interleague play this year. They were 1-2 against the Blue Jays as well as the Red Sox. Both of those teams are AL East rivals who the Rays seemed to have success against in the Regular season. The Phils also got swept by the Angels and lost 2 of 3 to Texas and Oakland respectively. In the Phils defense, they were a much different team then. That was the same Phils team that I didn't expect to make the Playoffs. They had a great bullpen and offense, but their starting pitching hadn't come to its own. After the trade deadline, the Phils made the acquisition of Joe Blanton who strengthened that rotation. Also, Brett Myers and Jamie Moyer really buckled down in that 2nd half. So this may be a case of comparing apples and oranges. I think it will be a close series.

Since MLB is trying not to defer attention away from the "beloved" World Series by reporting on offseason trades, I will do my best to inform readers about potential deals.

Jake Peavy has been on the crest of offseason acquisitions. It seems likely that Padres GM Kevin Towers is looking to shop Peavy and accelerate the rebuilding process for his team. While many of you would expect Yankees, Red Sox, and Angels to be the front runners, it seems most likely that Peavy will be a Brave next season for a number of reasons. Peavy doesn't like the AL much and would most likely not be able to handle the pressure of the AL East. Playing in front of sellout crowds every night is a little different than what he may be used to at Petco Park. As a native Alabaman, Peavy would be close to home in Atlanta. He seems like he could be a fan favorite and would certainly enjoy the relaxed atmosphere of Turner Field. The Braves would probably have to get rid of Kelly Johnson and Yunel Escobar to get it done.

If Towers decides to go through with the rebuilding process, he may look to shop Adrian Gonzalez. The Yankees will certainly be at the top of that list. He would make a great acquisition since he is only 26 and can play pretty good defense. He is also great offensively. He would be an upgrade from Giambi. The Yanks wouldn't have to move Damon to first. The only drawback of this is the price Towers will put on Gonzalez. I can see Melky playing in Petco, where center field is very large. His speed would be a great asset at that position. The downside of this is that Towers would want a lot in return for Gonzalez.

I can only see Giambi returning to Oakland or going to Seattle.

Derek Lowe is also on a lot of GMs potential acquisitions lists this winter. He could really go to any mid to large market team. If the Red Sox lose Paul Byrd and Tim Wakefield, they may bring Lowe back instead of going to laptop-stealing Clay Buccholz. I am not certain that bringing Lowe back after 4 years on the West coast would be best for the Red Sox. Lowe used to party a lot and is only getting older. Going from the worst division in baseball to the best can't be good for any pitcher.

There is still a lot more happening around the majors. So I encourage all of you to go to individual team's sites instead of MLB.com to stay up to date.

So far, I am batting 1.000 for my postseason predictions. I think the Phils/Dodgers series will go to 7 games. It will likely come down to home field advantage, as I see both teams playing better ball in their home parks than on the road.

ALCS on the other hand, may have a different outcome. I say Red Sox win it in 5 games.

As for Yankee news, there isn't much on the horizon. Expect Cashman to start making headlines after the World Series, sicne the Yankees were criticized last year for detracting attention from the postseason.