So far, I am very happy with the way Cashman has been approaching this offseason. This goes against many of the past Yankee offseasons which were characterized by the signing of big name sluggers with little defense. The New York Yankees announced today that they have acquired switch-hitting first baseman/outfielder Nick "Dirty 30" Swisher and right-handed pitcher Kanekoa Texeira from the Chicago White Sox in exchange for infielder Wilson Betemit and right-handed pitchers Jeff Marquez and Jhonny Nunez. Some of these guys show promise, but they are have yet to prove anything, so it is still hard to gauge how good this deal really is. Swisher will provide something that the Yanks have been missing since the days of Tino Martinez at 1st base: defense. Now that I think about it, Swisher reminds me a lot of Tino as a player. Of course Tino hit for higher average in his career, but Swisher is still young. He turns 28 in 12 days. Swisher hits for power, draws lots of walks, and plays great defense. He can also play outfield, if need be. Overall, I would say he is an upgrade from Giambi.

In older news, the Yanks signed Marte to a 3 year deal worth 12 million. That seems reasonable given his nasty stuff and the idea of having a guy who can get the ball to Mariano who is not Joba. Having a lefty like him is especially valuable in the AL East. Need I say more?

Tomorrow is the day the Yanks are expected to make an offer for Sabathia. Joel Sherman of the New York Post believes the Yanks will make an initial bid of 6 years in the $150 million range. While that kind of money would entice most people, I'm still convinced we will see Carsten Charles in Dodger Blue come March/April. When you make as much money as Sabathia does, you have to wonder if he will pitch where the money is or where his heart lies. I think the Dodgers will make a nice offer that will fall short of the Yanks' offer, but will be enough for CC. I've stated in a previous post why Sabathia likes the Dodgers.

In other non-Yankee related news, Kerry Wood will not be returning to the Cubs since Kevin Gregg was just acquired. The Mets will certainly have an interest in Wood's services. The Matt Holliday trade is huge news. It is uncharacteristic Billy Beane since he traded a bunch of moneyball type players for one superstar. I think the A's will make a run in the weak AL West this season.Billy Beane could potentially be on the buy side this offseason to round out his team. While he lost Carlos Gonzalez and Huston Street, he now has an upgraded outfield with Holliday, Ryan Sweeney, and Matt Murton. If the A's become buyers, there is a lot of speculation that Beane will pursue Furcal, who is one of the premier Shortstops in the game. The A's would certainly be contenders if they were able to jumpstart their offense to supplement their already excellent pitching.

I know it has been a long time since I have posted. I wanted to wait for the World Series to end and for the GM meetings in Dana Point to conclude. As I predicted, the Phillies would beat the Rays. But congrats to the Rays. Even though I have been critical of them in the past, they have overcome so much adversity and managed to come away as the victors of the toughest division in Baseball. I do think that if the Red Sox had faced the White Sox in the first round and made it to the World Series then they would have been champions.

Since I don't want to write a 20 page paper, I will focus mostly on the Yankee's future and I will detail my picks for Free Agent Frenzy. Since the Yanks are usually the biggest offseason player, I will probably end up detailing many of the free agents around the league. To keep up with what has been going on, I have been reading mlbtraderumors.com. It's a great site if you want to find out about all the latest deals and rumors instantaneously. There's been a lot of talk this Winter Meetings and this may just be another record-breaking season. Every year, it seems like more and more trades are occurring. I think it has something to do with the dynamic aspect of the sport that makes it much more interesting than other sports.

I really think the Yanks will sign Oliver Perez. He's a Scott Boras client and he seems to be a great fit for the team. He's turning 28 years old and he has nasty stuff. In previous posts, I discussed his ability to render lefties useless at the plate. The Mets are a possibility, but I think Minaya will focus more on his bullpen than his starting rotation this offseason. This brings up another free agent in K-Rod. I am 90% sure that K-Rod will be a Met next year. He would perfectly fill the late inning void within the organization and you know how Minaya loves those hispanic players. K-Rod may get a record breaking deal, since he did break Bobby Thigpen's record for most saves in a season. Sabathia is also at the forefront of the free agent pitching dilemma the Yankees are facing. I do believe that the Dodgers will ultimately offer him enough to get him to go to LA. Derek Lowe seems unlikely for the Yanks. I doubt that he can still pitch in the AL East and he is 34. He's extremely inconsistent and would be a bad fit for the Yanks. I expect the Tigers to come out of nowhere and sign him. They are in need of starting pitching and bullpen help. Expect them to be players in the free agent reliever market.

I am convinced that Jake Peavy will be a Brave next season. He is from Alabama and has certainly expressed interest in being able to live close to home. Also, now that Tim Hudson will miss a majority of the '09 season, Atlanta GM Frank Wren will be looking for all the starting pitching he can get. It seems like he has the most enticing prospects out of all the GMs who are competing for Peavy's services. I highly doubt that the Yanks would want to give up what Padres GM Kevin Towers wants.

As Yankee beat writer Peter Abraham has stated repeatedly, the Yanks will most likely give up either Hughes or Kennedy in a trade this offseason. Cashman has a lot of faith in Hughes and it would take a lot to give him up. so that means Kennedy will most likely be gone before the start of next season. Kennedy may turn into something good, but his future is not as bright as Hughes'. I am confident that the Yankees will re-sign Abreu. He is a first class right fielder who has been nothing but clutch for a team that seemed to struggle with RISP this past season.

Cashman has been insisting that he will look for a legit first baseman as opposed to a convert who wants to take one for the team. Teixeira is likely to be re-signed by the Angels. They have the resources and the desire to keep him. Giambi's chances of being re-signed aren't very high. The amount of money he is demanding will prove too much for his services. Giambi will either be in Oakland or Seattle next season. Seattle seems more likely since they can afford him. I think Cashman will be looking to shop Matsui and Kennedy for a solid first baseman. Please feel free to give your input on who this candidate may be since I don't have any ideas at the moment.

Cashman's focus this offseason will be starting pitching and first base. The bullpen really came together this past season, so there likely won't be any big FA moves there. Any Matt Holliday-Yankee rumors are likely just rumors since the Yanks have so many outfielders as it is. Manny is also unlikely since it would undermine Cashman's efforts to create a younger, well-rounded team. Manny will most likely be re-signed by LA.

To conclude my post, I will give you all an idea of where I think some of the notable free agents will end up in 2009. I am playing the mlb.com fantasy game called Free Agent Frenzy. If I get the most correct, I can win opening day tickets; so let's hope I am right. 15 is the highest confidence. 1 is the lowest.

Player Name | 2008 Team | 2009 Team | Confidence level
Bobby Abreu | NYY | NYY | 14
Milton Bradley | Tex | Tor | 6
A.J. Burnett |Tor | Bal | 5
Pat Burrell |Phi | Tb | 3
Ryan Dempster |CHC | Tex | 1
Adam Dunn |ARI | WSH | 2
Rafael Furcal |LAD | LAD | 13
Derek Lowe |LAD | DET | 4
Oliver Perez |NYM | NYY | 7
Manny Ramirez |LAD | LAD | 10
Francisco Rodriguez |LAA | NYM | 11
CC Sabathia |MIL | LAD | 12
Ben Sheets | MIL | ATL | 9
Mark Teixeira | LAA | LAA | 15
Kerry Wood | CHC | CHC | 8

So I got one half of the world series equation correct. Now that it's Phils/Rays, I'm going to revise my World Series winner prediction.

World Series Champion: Phillies (in 6 games).

This is the best NL champion I have seen in a while. I think the AL gets it handed to them this year.

Here's my comparison of the two teams:
Rays
Defense: A+
Offense: B
Starting Pitching: B+/A-
Bullpen: A-

Phillies
Defense: A
Offense: A-
Starting Pitching: A-
Bullpen: A

Phils win this. Better pen, better offense. Starting pitching is better imo. The only decisive advantage the Rays have besides homefield is defense.

These are the 4 man rotations:
Rays: Garza, Shields, Kazmir, Sonnanstine
Phils: Hamels, Myers, Blanton, Moyer

To aid the Rays case, the Phils were not too impressive in interleague play this year. They were 1-2 against the Blue Jays as well as the Red Sox. Both of those teams are AL East rivals who the Rays seemed to have success against in the Regular season. The Phils also got swept by the Angels and lost 2 of 3 to Texas and Oakland respectively. In the Phils defense, they were a much different team then. That was the same Phils team that I didn't expect to make the Playoffs. They had a great bullpen and offense, but their starting pitching hadn't come to its own. After the trade deadline, the Phils made the acquisition of Joe Blanton who strengthened that rotation. Also, Brett Myers and Jamie Moyer really buckled down in that 2nd half. So this may be a case of comparing apples and oranges. I think it will be a close series.

Since MLB is trying not to defer attention away from the "beloved" World Series by reporting on offseason trades, I will do my best to inform readers about potential deals.

Jake Peavy has been on the crest of offseason acquisitions. It seems likely that Padres GM Kevin Towers is looking to shop Peavy and accelerate the rebuilding process for his team. While many of you would expect Yankees, Red Sox, and Angels to be the front runners, it seems most likely that Peavy will be a Brave next season for a number of reasons. Peavy doesn't like the AL much and would most likely not be able to handle the pressure of the AL East. Playing in front of sellout crowds every night is a little different than what he may be used to at Petco Park. As a native Alabaman, Peavy would be close to home in Atlanta. He seems like he could be a fan favorite and would certainly enjoy the relaxed atmosphere of Turner Field. The Braves would probably have to get rid of Kelly Johnson and Yunel Escobar to get it done.

If Towers decides to go through with the rebuilding process, he may look to shop Adrian Gonzalez. The Yankees will certainly be at the top of that list. He would make a great acquisition since he is only 26 and can play pretty good defense. He is also great offensively. He would be an upgrade from Giambi. The Yanks wouldn't have to move Damon to first. The only drawback of this is the price Towers will put on Gonzalez. I can see Melky playing in Petco, where center field is very large. His speed would be a great asset at that position. The downside of this is that Towers would want a lot in return for Gonzalez.

I can only see Giambi returning to Oakland or going to Seattle.

Derek Lowe is also on a lot of GMs potential acquisitions lists this winter. He could really go to any mid to large market team. If the Red Sox lose Paul Byrd and Tim Wakefield, they may bring Lowe back instead of going to laptop-stealing Clay Buccholz. I am not certain that bringing Lowe back after 4 years on the West coast would be best for the Red Sox. Lowe used to party a lot and is only getting older. Going from the worst division in baseball to the best can't be good for any pitcher.

There is still a lot more happening around the majors. So I encourage all of you to go to individual team's sites instead of MLB.com to stay up to date.

So far, I am batting 1.000 for my postseason predictions. I think the Phils/Dodgers series will go to 7 games. It will likely come down to home field advantage, as I see both teams playing better ball in their home parks than on the road.

ALCS on the other hand, may have a different outcome. I say Red Sox win it in 5 games.

As for Yankee news, there isn't much on the horizon. Expect Cashman to start making headlines after the World Series, sicne the Yankees were criticized last year for detracting attention from the postseason.

There have been a few surprises thus far in the postseason. For one, I did not envision the Cubs playing such bad baseball. They are absolutely pathetic. I also didn't envision the Dodgers would play good baseball, especially since they were coming from the worst division in baseball with the worst record of any other contender. Based on what I have seen so far: here are my postseason predictions:

NLCS: Phillies versus Dodgers
ALCS: Red Sox versus Rays

World Series: Red Sox versus Phillies
World Series Champs: Red Sox

Yes, I said it. The Red Sox will win the World Series again. How is that for unbiased blogging? The Angels might even get swept by them in this series. The Angels and the Rays are very similar teams. They both have good bullpens, starting pitching, and defense. But they both lack offense. That is where the Red Sox will have the overwhelming advantage. The Red Sox are the only team in the ALDS that knows how to work a count. Rays, Angels, and even White Sox players are free-swinging. That is why the Yankees and the Red Sox games are always so long and competitive. Both teams have the best offenses with the most discipline. The White Sox do not have the starting pitching to beat the Rays. I realize that I am contradicting my previous post. But the Rays have them numbered in that category.

Here are the players the Yankees will need to decide on in this offseason:
Free agents: Abreu, OF; Chad Moeller, C; Pettitte, LHP; Rodriguez, C; Mussina, RHP, Giambi.

I'll start with Abreu. I think Abreu is the most likely to re-sign of these players. He has performed well every year. He has also hit in the clutch situations where A-Rod has not. He was our only good postseason player the past couple of years. He also has very good speed and is a pretty good fielder. If Cashman is smart, he will re-sign him.

Moeller will get either a really small contract or nothing at all. He is not great, but the Yanks might want him just in case Posada has injury problems again. Then again, it also matters who else is on the free agent catcher market.

I feel like the decision to bring Pettitte back lies more on his shoulders than the Yankees. While this wasn't the best season for him, the sentimental side of the Yankee organization wants to bring him back for the new stadium. So if Pettitte decides to not retire, the Yanks will most likely re-sign him.

Mussina will most likely retire. He was finally able to reach the elusive 20 win season that he has missed a few times throughout his career. Like most players, Moose wants to end on a high note. I don't think he would want to come back and have a bad year where Yanks fans remember him in the same light as Al Leiter.

Pudge will most likely not come back. Maybe if he were as much of an offensive presence as the Yankees were hoping for at the deadline then he might come back. Pudge knew that this was a half a season deal. I can see many teams wanting his services. He is a solid defensive player who may hit better away from New York. Maybe the Rays will want him as a backup to Dioner Navarro. I can see him on many different teams.

I highly doubt the Yankees would pick up Giambi's $22 million option. Maybe if he were to negotiate a lower salary, the Yanks would consider having him back. Despite his being overpaid, I like Giambi as a player. He isn't a batting average player. But he is the kind of guy who can deliver that homer or even a single, as he proved throughout the '08 season, in clutch situations. He does lack on defense, although he is very good at scooping the ball. Cashman has stated that he would like to have a first baseman play first base, not someone from another position who is looking to step up. That kind of rules out my Damon playing 1st suggestion. It really matters who is available on the market. I doubt the Angels don't re-sign Teixeira since he is their best hitter. If he doesn't come back to the Yanks, it will most likely be due to his high salary. Using that logic, there aren't many teams that would want Giambi since he is getting older and he costs a lot. I think the best match for him would be with the Seattle Mariners. While I do not doubt that Giambi likes New York, he seems out of place here. I think about the days when Giambi was a beast in Oakland.

He lives in Las Vegas in the offseason, so he obviously likes the West Coast. And, the Mariners face the A's a lot since they are AL West rivals. Giambi kills his former club, so they would be a good match.

I'm sure those of you who have been keeping up with the Yanks know that Cashman has decided to come back. He has been extended through 2011. This is great news since I think he knows what's best for the future of the team better than anyone else. He will bring us a step closer to winning a World Series.

My new favorite free agent pitcher since Lohse was signed by the Cards is Oliver Perez. The guy's an absolute stud and he would perfectly fill the need for a dominating lefty in our starting 5. He is especially effective against lefties. This past year, for example, lefties batted a mere .158 against him. Think about some of the tough lefties the Yanks have to face in the AL East: David Ortiz, J.D. Drew, Carlos Pena, Carl Crawford, Nick Markakis, and Aubrey Huff to name a few. Also, Perez is used to the pressure of being in New York, since he is a Met. The best part is that he is only 27. Some negatives include his past inconsistent performances and the NL to AL switch that is usually so difficult on pitchers.

Lastly, I want to congratulate the White Sox on reaching the playoffs for the first time since 2005, the year in which they won it all. The question is, can they do it again? I had them winning the Central all along. Even though, I did not imagine that they would do it in such dramatic fashion. I certainly want them to win since they are the team that is least harmful to the Yanks. Red Sox, Angels, and Rays winning would result in a lot of cocky fans with bragging rights. As for whether or not they can do it is a different issue. They are facing the Rays tomorrow. The Rays have heart, but I'm not sure if their offense will be enough to propel them past a power-hitting White Sox team.

"The Cardinals announced Monday that they have agreed to a new four-year contract with right-hander Kyle Lohse, who would have been eligible for free agency after the World Series ends. The deal, which lasts through the 2012 season, includes complete no-trade protection and is worth a reported $41 million."

So, I guess the Yanks won't get lucky with this 30 year old in the offseason. I hate to say it, but it looks like Sabathia is the Yank's best offseason option. They will have trouble getting him because big market NL teams will make large counter offers for him. Sabathia has excelled as a hitter and seems like a better fit for the NL.

I'm happy for Moose. Maybe he will be able to carry some of this momentum into next season.

But what a bummer for Mets fans. Their bullpen killed them as many detractors predicted. The Mets are definitely better than the Brewers. It's too bad they didn't make it.

It's sad that both the Mets and the Yankees have identical (good) records and will not make the playoffs. Especially since teams with much worse records, such as the Dodgers are making the playoffs. But hey, that's baseball.

Tomorrow is the last game of the Yankee season. It will be a doubleheader versus the Red Sox. Unfortunately, these games mean much less than what the teams were hoping they would when the schedules first came out. There is one achievement that you should all be watching in addition to the final game at Shea. Mike Mussina, who has been a 19 game winner a few times in his career, will be going for number 20. Moose's career can be defined by a lot of near misses. He pitched 8.2 innings of no hit baseball when his no-no was broken up. All of these near misses may prove insignificant after tomorrow's performance. Let's see if Moose can overcome this elusive feat at the expense of the Red Sox.

If we look at 2008, we will see that it was both similar and different than other seasons. While two no hitters and a lot of action at the trade deadline were unique to '08, it was the balance of power shift in baseball that really surprised me. Going into 2008, the Detroit Tigers were on my list of teams to look for in the pennant race after making the blockbuster acquisitions of Miguel Cabrera, Dontrelle Willis, Jacque Jones, and Edgar Renteria. As of today, they have a .459 winning percentage. What many people didn't consider since they were in such awe was that the Tigers did not correct any of their past starting pitching and bullpen problems. They were left with a power slugging high payroll team with little starting pitching and no bullpen. While I am on this note, I can also cite the Mariners as another team that just collapsed in 2008. A few other teams did not live up to their potential, while others played better baseball than many expected form them, such as the Twins and the Rays.

In this post, I will choose 1 team that will surprise everyone next year. I will select this team from a list of the 10 worst teams of 2008 based on winning percentage.

List of 10 Worst teams:
Cincinnati
Kansas City
Detroit
San Francisco
Atlanta
Baltimore
Pittsburgh
San Diego
Seattle
Washington

Of these 10, I think the team that will most likely not be on this list next year and will surprise a lot of people is the Cincinnati Reds. I say this because they have a solid bullpen, some solid starters, and some up and coming hitting prospects who are sure to impress next year. After getting rid of Adam Dunn and Griffey, many people thought of them as a much longer term team. However, the Reds have faired well since the departures of their two principle sluggers. Brandon Phillips, Jeff Keppinger, Jay Bruce, and Jerry Hairston Jr. are among some of their very talented offensive players. They have some great starting pitchers in Aaron Harang and Edinson Volquez. If this team adds another solid starter to their rotation, you can count on them upsetting a team like the Brewers in the central division. The Brewers, I suspect, will not fair well next year due to the loss of a lot of the players who they acquired at the deadline, such as CC Sabathia and Ray Durham. They will still have a talented team, however, it will suffer a lot.

So my pick for surprise team of next year is the Cincinnati Reds. Remember to watch Moose get his 20th win tomorrow.

So the Yankee post season run is officially over after the Red Sox beat the Indians 5-4 yesterday. With Cashman's status for next year a question mark, there are many more question marks in what could be the most influential offseason in the team's history. A number of players will be free agents in the winter, freeing up $80 million in the payroll.

Here's what I think should happen:
2009 Roster
Outfield: Matsui, Nady, Abreu, Gardner. I think alternating Gardner with these guys is a good plan since you can give them days off or put them at DH. I think we should trade Melky while we still can. He is no better than Gardner and I never liked Melky's offense.

1st Base: Johnny Damon. With Giambi coming off the books, most people are speculating that the Yankees are going to pick up Teixeira. I don't understand what gives people the idea that Teix will be available. The Angels have almost as much money as the Yankees and benefit greatly from having him in the lineup. Expect them to lock him up with a long term contract. The first baseman position in baseball is one in which you can get away with having a decent/mediocre fielder since fewest balls are hit there and most of the duties of the position is to catch the ball while keeping your foot on the bag. Look at some of the other first basemen around the majors: Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder, Konerko, Frank Thomas, Kevin Millar, etc. These guys are all hitters. Having Damon at first would seem a little weird since he would be the fastest first basemen in the majors. But that is not to say that is a negative by any means. Damon is no outfielder. A Major League outfielder needs a good arm. He is similar to Juan Pierre of the Dodgers. Damon playing first would also free up the DH spot so players could alternate at that position. Damon is an offensive player at this point in his career, so this move would benefit him as well as the team. Besides, the only free agent first baseman who would be worth getting is Teixeira.

2nd Base: Robinson Cano. I have always been stoked on Cano. While he defense can be lacking at times, he has the skill to win a batting title someday. He also makes some really tough plays at 2nd base. There is no reason to get rid of him.

SS: Jeter. We can't get rid of Jeter. He isn't the best defensive shortstop in the game anymore, but he is still up there. And you can't argue with his defense. He is also the captain. Unlike Varitek, he still contributes to his team's success on the field.

3rd Base: A-Rod. I absolutely hate it when people hate on A-Rod. It's clearly a jealousy issue, with him being the highest paid baseball player. Hopefully, this odd year statistic holds true for the '09 season. '03, '05, '07 were amazing years for him. I personally think he needs a better psychologist. That is why he has clutchness issues.

Pitcher: This is where it gets pretty complicated. I'm going to outline a couple possible scenarios.

Scenario 1: Wang, Mussina, Pettitte, Hughes/Joba/Kennedy, Free agent acquisition
Scenario 2: Wang, Mussina, Hughes, Joba, Free Agent Acquisition

The complicated part of all this is the Free Agent question mark. I would personally throw Melky into the trade talks to get a high quality pitcher. Before Sabathia's trade deadline deal that sent him to the Brewers, I thought he would be a Yankee for sure. But Sabathia demonstrated his ability to hit, which gives NL teams a greater advantage if they acquire him. I expect the Dodgers or some other big market NL team to get him. A.J. Burnett is a possibility; however, I'm not sure that his inconsistency would be aided by a move to the AL East rival Yankees.

My top pick for a free agent acquisition this offseason is Kyle Lohse of the St. Louis Cardinals. Lohse is turning 30 on October 4th and is a solid Young pitcher. He played well this year and seems like he would fit the mold of the future of the Yankees. He is a Native American, so the Yanks would be one of the few organizations with 2 Native American players. Usually, I am not too fond of pitcher acquisitions from the NL. Look at Burnett, Willis, Pavano, etc. However, Lohse held his own this year against the Rays and the Red Sox, who are our division rivals. Against Boston, he gave up 1 earned run over 6 innings at Fenway. He also gave up 2 earned runs over 6 innings against the Rays. Lohse has also pitched in the AL before, so he is used t the level of play.

Here are his stats for the 2008 season through today:
15-6 record
3.78 ERA
1.30 WHIP
119 K
49 BB

One of the main reasons why I like him is that it won't be nearly as hard to get him. Sabathia is going to cost a lot of money and the Brewers own him until the winter so we would have to give up some prospects. Lohse is only 30 and is good enough for the job that we need him to do. Plus, Sabathia has been pitching so many complete games that his value has become diminished.

That is my take on the offseason. Let's hope we get Lohse.